Poll shows Cameron tied with Beshear in governor’s race

Published 10:02 am Friday, November 3, 2023

A new Emerson College poll has Republican Attorney General Daniel Cameron catching up to Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear in the governor’s race.

The poll shows 47% support for both candidates, with 4% still undecided and 2% saying they will vote for someone else. There is no third candidate in the race.

It’s a massive shift from Emerson’s poll taken last month, Oct. 1 to 3, which had Beshear up by 16 percentage points, with 49% of the vote to Cameron’s 33%.

Most of the change is in undecided voters, who appear to have joined the Cameron camp, according to this poll.

The methodology is also slightly different between the polls. The early October poll sampled 450 registered voters, while the new poll sampled 1,000 likely voters or Kentuckians who had already voted.

According to FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings, Emerson College calls races correctly 78% of the time, making it a highly reputable poll.

On Nov. 1, former President Donald Trump posted a two-minute video broadcasting his support for Cameron.
He mentioned Cameron’s endorsement by the Kentucky Fraternal Order of Police, his promise to eliminate the income tax and his commitment to address learning loss from the pandemic.

“Daniel Cameron is young star who has done a great job as your attorney general, always being fair but very, very tough and the wonderful people of Kentucky know it,” he said.

“…Daniel is a tremendous fighter on crime, lowering taxes, saving our Second Amendment, stopping inflation and of course helping our great military and our vets.”

That video, and Trump’s general endorsement of Cameron, may have contributed to the shift.

“Cameron appears to have gained ground by consolidating Republican voters who supported former President Donald Trump in the 2020 election,” said  Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.

“In October, 54% of Trump supporters supported Cameron; now, as election day approaches, that number has jumped to 79% – a 25-point increase.”

Cameron has also skyrocketed among voters in the 50-69 age bracket, from 36% support last month to 58% support now.